Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Mark Sanchez most over paid NFL player?

An intriguing report has come from Forbes.com regarding the most overpaid players in the NFL, and Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez tops the list.

Sanchez, who inked a five year $60 million deal in 2009, has provided mediocre results since becoming the Jets franchise quarterback.

Here is the their reasoning: "Sanchez, though, has also thrown three interceptions. He enters Week 3 with a middle-of-the-road passer rating of 87.7. That’s an improvement over the low 70s Sanchez averaged in his first two seasons after signing a rookie contract worth up to $60 million over five years. This season happens to be the balloon year of Sanchez’s five-year deal: he’s owed $14.75 million. Like any QB drafted high, Sanchez is being paid for the potential the club figures he has to develop into a star. But while he’s progressing, there’s no way to avoid viewing his salary as anything but excessive until that big year actually comes.

"So picking the most overpaid requires a touch of subjectivity and some common sense. Going down the list of the NFL’s highest 100 salaries for 2011, we focused on those whose career history is lacking not only statistically (QB passer ratings, etc.) but on those who haven’t consistently earned starting berths or who haven’t made All Pro despite collecting one of the top salaries in the game at his position. Base 2011 salaries were used, according to data kept by spotrac.com – not annual averages or one-time bonus payments."

Sanchez's career stats are as follows: 71 QB rating (which is an overrated statistic in its own right, since its measurements are never indicative of actual performance. For example a QB can complete 1 pass in 1 attempt and have a QB rating of 154.5! Yeah, a little nutty).

He has completed 55 percent of his passes, thrown for 6,200 yards with 33 touchdowns and 36 interceptions. Sanchez is also 22-11 as a starter in the regular season.

If you want to go saber metric (a la "Moneyball") on Sanchez, he has been often credited as a fourth quarter genius, thanks in part to the various comebacks that he has been a part of in his career thus far. However, statistically, Sanchez has completed only 48 percent of his passes in the fourth quarter, with four touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

While Sanchez is maddeningly inconsistent, Forbes doesn't measure these statistics: Sanchez is 4-2 in the postseason, which is more postseason wins than any QB after two years of NFL experience. Also, when the chips are down, Sanchez more often than not makes the big throw -- i.e. any game winning touchdown pass last season in the final quarter or overtime. He has also completed 60 percent of his passes in playoff games.

Sanchez hasn't exactly lived up to the contract. With great weapons around him from Santonio Holmes, Plaxico Burress, LaDainian Tomlinson and Dustin Keller, one would think that Sanchez would be putting up monster numbers, but he hasn't.

In fact, he may never become a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. He isn't that type of player.

That being said, Sanchez's mediocrity doesn't mean he is doomed to be a terrible quarterback. John Elway never completed more than 60 percent of his passes during his first 11 seasons in the NFL. It was not until he got Terrell Davis in the backfield and an offensive guru like Mike Shanahan as a coach, that Elway's statistics matched his pedigree.

In 1986, Elway completed 55 percent of his passes and threw only 19 TDs to 13 INTs and still led the Broncos to the Super Bowl. 1987 (54 % complete, 19 TD's 12 INT's) and 1989 (53 % complete, 18 TD's and 18 INT's) were also Super Bowl years for Denver; granted, they lost to the Giants, Redskins and 49ers respectively.

Is Sanchez the next Elway? I won't go that far. Sanchez has a long way to go before he can join the company of the elite in the NFL. Is the most overpaid - hey, if you play in New York and don't put up big numbers you are indeed overpaid.

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