The Yankees won 103 games this year, basically captured the AL East title in early August, and have found ways to win games despite suffering several injuries to everyday players seemingly every week of the season, yet they have to be on upset alert when the playoffs begin.
Why? Because this version of the Minnesota Twins that they will see next week is no pushover. The Yankees have long used the Twins are their personal whipping boys whenever the franchises have met in the postseason, but this time it could be different. And if the Yankees find a way to lose this series -- as unlikely as it may seem on paper, the reason why will have a lot to do with the Yankees pitching.
Starting pitching has been an issue all year for the Bronx Bombers, starting with Luis Severino missing most of the season with rotator cuff inflammation and a lat injury, to the inconsistency of JA Happ, Mashairo Tanaka, the end of CC Sabathia's career in Pinstripes, and the bizarre glute injury to James Paxton in the seasons' final week.Let us not forget the legal trouble that surrounds starter Domingo German, who has been placed on administrative leave as MLB continues to investigate into allegations of domestic assault.
This is a big problem.
Manager Aaron Boone hasn't announced a rotation yet for the Best-of-Five series, and he is going to need all the time to think about how to line his starters up. The best guess is that Tanaka will get the ball Game 1. Aside from Sabathia, who likely won't make the postseason roster, Tanaka has the most postseason experience of an starter in this patch-work rotation.
It was an average year for Tanaka, who went 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA. Some nights he was dominant. Other nights, he was lit up. In the season finale he gave up a couple of runs over three innings against Texas, a 6-1 loss as a warmup for the postseason. While giving him the ball to start the ALDS could be considered iffy, especially if Paxton's glute injury, reputation alone gives him the edge.
And that takes to the aforementioned Paxton. Over the last two months of the season, nobody was better than Paxton in this rotation. Posting a 10-0 record with an ERA just above three, Paxton has earned the right to get the trust of the Yankees for multiple starts in this postseason. Don't be shocked if we don't see Paxton until Game Three in Minnesota, since he has yielded only four earned runs in his last four starts away from the Bronx.Of course the lack of postseason experience will get drummed up a bit here with Paxton, but once he's on the rubber it's just another start. Of all the starters in the Yankees rotation, he's the most likely to go six or more innings.
After Paxton the Yankees have a mess on their hands. Severino made only three starts since coming off the Injured List. His best outing came against Toronto, when he three-hit the Blue Jays on September 22. Is that enough of a sample size to give him the ball in Game 2 or Game 3? There is no telling what kind of impact if any he can have on this time in a critical postseason contest.
Finally JA Happ is going to get some looks here. Yes, I know Happ had his fair share of issues this season, but in a short series like this against a powerful Twins lineup, you can damn well expect to see Happ at some point, especially out of the pen in any game that Severino starts where he doesn't go at least five.
The Yankees hope they don't have to go to Happ, who got hit hard against the Twins twice this year, but again, they may have no other choice.
One thing the Yankees will have to protect against is Twins ace Jose Berrios, whose 3.68 ERA was the best on a club that owned a 4.18 team ERA. Outside of Berrios the Twins are hittable in the pitching department, which is why many believe this series will see its fair share of home runs and lead changes.
It's going to be fascinating, but if the Yankees are to advance to LCS for the second time in three years, they need Tanaka, Paxton and Severino to step up and save the day.
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